Which Watches Hold Their Value? An Honest Look at 2026
How watch value retention really works — which brands and references hold value, why most depreciate, and why buying a watch as an investment usually disappoints.
By DialDrops Editorial Team · Reviewed against our editorial policy
Start with the honest framing
Most watches lose money. The handful of references that appreciate get all the attention, which creates a badly distorted picture of what ownership normally looks like. A realistic expectation for a well-chosen watch from a strong brand is that you recover 60-80% of retail if you sell within a few years. That is a reasonable cost for years of enjoyment; it is not an investment thesis, and nothing on this page should be read as financial advice.
What actually drives value retention
Four factors dominate. **Supply discipline:** brands that produce below demand hold value; brands that flood the market do not. **Brand depth:** a long, verifiable history supports pricing in a way marketing spend cannot. **Model continuity:** references that have run for decades have established markets. **Condition and completeness:** original box, papers, unpolished case and documented service history routinely account for a 10-20% swing on the same reference.
The consistent performers
Steel professional Rolex references, the steel Patek Nautilus and Aquanaut, and the steel Audemars Piguet Royal Oak have held or gained value across market cycles because supply is genuinely constrained. Below that tier, Omega Speedmaster Professionals, Tudor Black Bay 58s and Grand Seiko Spring Drive models depreciate modestly and stabilise quickly. That combination — small initial loss, then a flat curve — is what most buyers should be aiming for.
Where the losses happen
Fashion-branded watches lose most of their retail price immediately because retail was never a market price. Heavily complicated watches from smaller brands suffer because the buyer pool is tiny and service is expensive. Smartwatches depreciate like consumer electronics, because that is what they are. Precious-metal versions of steel sports watches often lose more in percentage terms than the steel model, since the metal value is a fraction of the retail premium.
Limited editions are not automatically valuable
A run of 5,000 pieces is not scarce, and a limited edition of an unpopular model is just an unpopular model with a number on the caseback. What matters is whether demand exceeds the run size. Genuine appreciation tends to come from small runs of already-desirable references, or from editions with real historical significance — not from a colour variant with a special box.
The hidden costs of holding
Any honest accounting includes service every seven to ten years, insurance, and the opportunity cost of the capital. On a $10,000 watch held a decade, service alone can run to well over $1,000. A watch that resells for exactly what you paid has still cost you money — which is fine, as long as you go in knowing it.
The buying rules that protect value
Buy at retail wherever possible; paying a grey-market premium means starting underwater. Keep every accessory, the box and the papers. Refuse unnecessary polishing. Choose long-running core references over novelty variants. Buy watches you actually want to wear — enjoyment is the return you can count on, and it is the reason the rest of this holds up.
The bottom line
If you want an appreciating asset, buy an asset. If you want a watch, buy the one you will wear, from a brand with supply discipline and a service network, at retail, and keep it complete and unpolished. Do that and value retention takes care of itself as a side effect rather than a goal.